Cocoa Shortage – A Threat to Chocolate

Cocoa Shortage – A Threat to Chocolate

The global cocoa and chocolate industry is experiencing its worst production shortage since 1977, a year marked by a similar crisis caused by poor harvests and political instability in West Africa. Today, this new crisis, once again affecting African harvests, not only impacts prices but also the quality and availability of cocoa bean stocks.

The real cause of this SHORTAGE:

The main cause is climate change affecting West Africa, particularly Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. It is disrupting climate patterns, leading to long periods of heavy rain followed by prolonged drought, which impacts harvests and farm productivity. In addition, there is a major issue with viruses affecting cocoa trees, further reducing yields. However, these two countries alone account for over 70% of global cocoa production, resulting in a significant 13.1% decrease in 2024 (4.382 million tons vs. 5.044 million tons the previous season).

Another emerging issue is that part of the harvested beans no longer meet the quality standards required, especially for use in chocolate. Poor fermentation, excessive humidity, and mold are increasingly common problems that affect the purity and quality of the cocoa — issues that are often linked to the effects of climate change. While large companies usually purchase all types of beans regardless of quality, this decline still poses challenges for producers aiming to supply premium markets.

Meanwhile, global consumer demand continues to rise, creating real pressure on global cocoa bean stocks. In concrete terms, global stockpiles have decreased by 26.8% from 2022/2023 (1.778 million tons) to 2023/2024 (1.300 million tons). This drop is equivalent to approximately 6.8 billion 70-gram chocolate bars, a significant shortfall on a global scale.

On pricing:

In 2024, cocoa prices saw a historic surge, rising by between 120% and 150% compared to the previous year. Prices even hit a record high in December, reaching $12,906 per ton, a 310% increase. This is explained by the extreme supply deficit caused by catastrophic harvests, alongside strong demand putting pressure on the market.

Impact on artisanal chocolatiers:

Large industrial brands can rely on extensive supply chains, substantial financial resources, and strong brand recognition. They can easily adapt their recipes, reduce the cocoa percentage, or simply raise their prices.But the bigger issue is they are cutting out cocoa and cocoa butter for cheaper ingredients. 

For companies focused on craftsmanship, like Exquisito Chocolate, the impact is even more delicate. It’s not only financial, we depend on high-quality beans sourced from ethical supply chains and farms that respect traditional methods. The beans are chosen for their flavor, origin, and traceability.

Unlike big brands, we do not wish to compromise on quality or our commitments.

What can consumers do:

• Choose brands that are respectful and transparent about their sourcing
  
  

• Understand and support transparent trade production
  
  

• Stay informed about the challenges facing the chocolate industry
  
  

The current shortage reveals a real imbalance in the market and marks a historic moment for chocolate. But it is also an opportunity to reaffirm our values by committing to more ethical, sustainable, and conscious consumption.

At the heart of this crisis are the farmers. The people we’ve worked with for years, who are now struggling with unpredictable weather, failing crops, and uncertain futures. When their harvests suffer, it directly affects our ability to source the same high-quality beans from the same trusted farms. For us at Exquisito, it’s not just about chocolate; it’s about relationships, tradition, respect and a shared commitment to doing things the right way.

Written by Noah from Exquisito Chocolates